'Tis the season...

 

Fa la la la la la la la la.  What?  No, not that season.  The local weather weasels are giddy - June 1st is the start of hurricane season.  Different TV stations are running half hour programs on how to prepare for a potential hurricane.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. With 70% confidence, NOAA is forecasting a range of 14 to 21 named storms. Six to 10 of those could become hurricanes, including three to six category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes.

It's an odds game.  August and September are the most hurricane active months.  According to the Weather Prediction Center, a tropical cyclone makes landfall along the coastline about three times every four years, and on any 50 mi (80 km) segment of the coastline a hurricane makes landfall about once every six years.  Historically, our area has experienced a direct hit once every 28 years.  Of course, that doesn't mean it can't happen back to back - Mother Nature doesn't operate on a schedule.  The last direct hit to Port Isabel/South Padre Island was in 2008.

From border cities like Brownsville to northern hubs like Port Arthur, any area along the Texas coast is vulnerable to hurricanes. But the cities of Galveston and Houston have experienced by far the most severe hurricane damage of any Texas city over the last century.  Last year (2021) was the third most active hurricane season on record.  In 2020, Hurricane Hanna made landfall north of us, then turned southwest, dropping huge amounts of rain further up the Rio Grande Valley.  The wind is an issue; the rain amounts can be even more devastating to low lying areas like the Valley; some parts of the Valley were flooded for weeks.

We'll be heading to some good motorcycle/scooter riding in a couple weeks.  The house will be locked down tight, hurricane shutters rolled down, nothing that could become "a missle" in the wind left outside... and hopes that the season won't be as active as predicted.

Warm water across the Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico can cause more activity...